The next Dubai Airshow is slated to return as a major commercial forum for aircraft commitments and strategic announcements, and market watchers will be watching closely for how buyers balance price, delivery certainty and safety reputation when they write large checks. As of September 19, 2023 the event itself has not produced its 2023 order tallies, so any immediate breakdown must await the show floor.

At the macro level the competitive picture entering the Dubai Airshow is shaped by 2022 performance and backlog dynamics. Airbus reported substantially higher deliveries and a larger net order intake in 2022 than Boeing, a gap that shapes industry perceptions of production reliability and near term availability. Airbus recorded 661 deliveries in 2022 and reported robust gross and net order figures heading into 2023. Boeing, while recovering from prior setbacks, delivered 480 aircraft in 2022 and reported a strong order year relative to its immediate post-2019 trajectory, but it remained behind Airbus on deliveries for that calendar year.

History at Dubai shows that Gulf carriers make pragmatic, fleet-driven choices rather than brand-only bets. For example Emirates used the 2019 Dubai Airshow to commit to both Airbus A350s and Boeing 787s as part of a deliberate widebody fleet strategy, demonstrating that lead customers in the region will mix OEMs to manage network needs and supplier risk.

Safety headlines and regulatory interventions are an underappreciated but material influence on order flow. Two issues that have been salient through 2022 and early 2023 will figure in buyer calculus. First, the public dispute and subsequent legal settlement between Qatar Airways and Airbus over A350 surface degradation put the aircraft family under intense scrutiny and injected reputational risk into what had otherwise been an A350 success story. The parties reached a confidential settlement in early 2023 and said work to repair and return affected aircraft to service was underway. That resolution reduces acute regulatory uncertainty but does not erase buyer sensitivity to quality control and post‑delivery remediation burdens.

Second, Boeing faced renewed attention when deliveries of the 787 Dreamliner were paused to address a fuselage component analysis issue and to satisfy regulator concerns about production records and supplier documentation. That pause and the longer term FAA scrutiny of Boeing production processes create a commercial headwind where carriers weigh whether promised delivery schedules are credible.

What this means for any Boeing versus Airbus tally at the Dubai Airshow is straightforward in regulatory and contractual terms. Orders are not merely expressions of aircraft preference. They are also votes of confidence in the OEMs’ ability to deliver conforming aircraft on time and to manage after‑sale remediation without crippling operational disruption. When an OEM faces public safety remediation or delivery holds, customers often press harder for contractual protections, extended warranties, acceptance conditions and delivery guarantees. Those demands raise acquisition costs or slow deal flow until uncertainty diminishes.

For Middle Eastern carriers the particular commercial priorities that will shape wins and losses are fleet commonality, range and capacity options for long haul hubs, financing and export credit availability, and calendar certainty for getting aircraft into service before peak travel seasons. Given the region’s appetite for widebody capacity and hub throughput, expect the large widebody programs and their delivery timetables to attract the most scrutiny at this edition of the show.

Practical signals to watch on the show floor

  • Delivery windows and reassurances. Any OEM that publishes concrete remedial timelines and third party verification for previously flagged issues will gain commercial leverage. Look for language about regulatory approvals, rectification programs and timelines in deal announcements.

  • Mix of narrowbody versus widebody orders. A preponderance of narrowbody commitments tends to favour the manufacturer with the healthier single-aisle supply chain and backlog. A surge in widebody orders will reward manufacturers who can prove consistent long‑range production performance and predictable engine support.

  • Contract terms. Airlines will accept headline counts only after seeing acceptance conditions, cancellation protections and compensation language. These contract terms disclose as much about OEM credibility as the raw numbers.

Policy takeaways for regulators and procurement authorities

  • Transparency and timeliness matter. Regulators should provide clear, timely findings when safety or production issues arise to reduce speculative market churn and allow buyers to make informed commercial choices.

  • Stronger supply chain oversight reduces political spillover. Governments that back export finance for aircraft should insist on demonstrable quality assurance measures from OEMs before extending credit guarantees.

  • Contractual safeguards are a buyer responsibility. Airlines should insist on acceptance criteria and remediation commitments that limit operational exposure if production defects or unexpected grounding events occur.

Conclusion

By the time orders from the Dubai Airshow 2023 are tallied the headline Boeing versus Airbus split will matter to market share watchers and to OEM balance sheets. From a safety and procurement vantage point the more consequential metric will be which manufacturer convinces buyers that it can deliver conforming aircraft on schedule and that it accepts responsibility for fixing problems quickly and transparently. In the current environment operational certainty and clear remediation pathways are as valuable as list price discounts, and those factors will determine who wins the largest commercial commitments in Dubai.