On Nov. 20, 2023 a U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon overshot Runway 22 at Marine Corps Air Station Kaneohe Bay and came to rest in Kaneohe Bay waters a short distance beyond the runway. All nine crewmembers aboard evacuated safely and no injuries were reported.

The initial Navy statement says the aircraft was returning from a regularly scheduled flight, that first responders employed floating barriers and divers stabilized the airplane, and that a preliminary assessment found the airframe structurally intact with no signs of fuel leakage. The Navy also said it will convene an investigation to determine cause and contributing factors.

As of Nov. 21, 2023 there is no NTSB preliminary report publicly available about this P-8A event. The NTSB routinely issues preliminary reports for civil aviation accidents it investigates, but by regulation the agency’s authority generally covers civil aircraft and public aircraft except those operated by the U.S. armed forces. In practice this means military-led mishaps are typically investigated under Department of Defense procedures unless there is a civil aircraft involved or the military requests NTSB participation.

That jurisdictional reality matters for readers expecting an NTSB-style preliminary within days. A civilian preliminary usually lists factual information gathered quickly from air traffic control, recorded data if available, positions and damage, weather, and a short summary of actions taken by investigators. A military investigation will produce similar factual findings but follow a different chain of custody, reporting format, and distribution. If the NTSB is asked to participate or if a civil aircraft was involved, you would likely see an NTSB preliminary posted to its investigations page. Absent that request, expect initial releases from the Navy or Marine Corps while the service convenes its mishap investigation board.

Operationally, the visible facts from the scene deserve immediate attention from crews and operators even before a formal cause is determined. Public reporting noted reduced visibility and rainy conditions in the area around the time of the landing. A stabilized approach policy, clearly defined go-around criteria, and conservative decision making in marginal visibility and gusting wind conditions are the frontline defenses against runway excursions. If you fly approaches into short fields, bases with overrun hazards, or coastal fields with tricky winds, treat that risk the same whether you are on a transport, patrol aircraft, or light airplane.

From a procedural perspective investigators will look at the usual mix: approach and landing configuration, airspeed and sink rate profiles, autobrake and thrust reverse indications, runway surface conditions, crew briefings and callouts, and any ATC or NOTAM factors. For multi-crew military operations, investigators will also examine detachment procedures, currency and rostering, and any local operating agreements that differ from the aircraft’s home base. Flight data recorder and cockpit voice recorder data will be pivotal if they are recovered intact.

For operators and safety managers reading this on Nov. 21, 2023 the immediate items to act on are simple and practical: review stabilized approach criteria with line crews, revisit go-around authority so any crewmember can call it without stigma, ensure dispatch tolerances for marginal weather are conservative, and check that marina and base environmental protection steps for fuel or pollutant containment are current and exercised. The fact that all crewmembers escaped without injury is a reminder that training and emergency egress preparedness matter just as much as the landing itself.

I will monitor official releases from the Navy and the NTSB. If the Navy requests NTSB participation or if the NTSB posts a preliminary report, that document will provide early factual data useful for deeper analysis. Until then, treat the event as a military mishap under DoD investigation with evolving details coming from Navy channels and local reporting.