Pilots and airport ops teams need a sober read on 2024 now, not wishful thinking. Low‑altitude airspace is getting busier, the number of small unmanned aircraft systems is already in the high hundreds of thousands, and the tools regulators planned to use to identify operators are only just being bedded in. That combination means more reported incursions next year, and a changing pattern of how and where they will show up.

Baseline projection. Expect reported drone sightings near airports to continue at or above 2023 levels and to drift upward in 2024. On the conservative side, a modest rise of 10 percent is likely as more hobbyists and commercial operators return to year‑round flying and as seasonal peaks shift. That is driven by sheer fleet scale and more flights in urban corridors where operations intersect with approach and departure paths. This is a working forecast based on observed reporting trends and fleet growth.

Higher‑risk scenario. If enforcement and public education do not keep pace with fleet growth, and if a portion of operators delay Remote ID compliance, reported incursions could jump 20 to 30 percent in 2024. Late or uneven Remote ID equipage will leave enforcement and detection gaps that irresponsible operators can exploit. The FAA did extend operator compliance timelines in 2023 to ease the transition, which changes the short term enforcement landscape.

Tactical picture for pilots. Expect incursions to be most frequent:

  • Around major metro airports during evening and weekend periods when recreational flying rises.
  • Along approach and departure corridors where line‑of‑sight thinking by remote pilots breaks down.
  • Near events and large public gatherings where operators seek visuals or footage but do not factor airport proximity. For the working pilot this means continuing to treat any UAS sighting with high regard: report it to ATC, log the sighting in whatever safety reporting feed your operator uses, and add the incident to briefings. The FAA and industry briefings still stress that pilots and controllers remain primary detectors of UAS in the near term.

Lessons from 2023 incidents. Localized shutdowns and short suspensions that occurred in 2023 show the pattern: brief but disruptive closures are enough to cascade delays across networks and create large operational cost. Dublin in February 2023 is a clear example where a short suspension produced immediate knock‑on effects for schedules and airport resources. Those kinds of disruptions will continue unless perimeter detection, law enforcement coordination, and deterrence improve.

What Remote ID actually changes. Remote ID gives authorities a way to link a transmitting drone to an owner or control station. It is a critical building block for enforcement and for UTM services. But the rule rollout and enforcement posture in late 2023 introduced a transition window for operators and manufacturers. That window reduces the near‑term effectiveness of Remote ID as a blunt tool to stop incursions until equipage and enforcement reach critical mass. Expect a period in 2024 when Remote ID helps investigations after the fact more than it prevents every illegal flight in real time.

How Advanced Air Mobility will complicate low altitude airspace. The FAA has signaled plans to integrate advanced air mobility and to pilot operational sites under the Innovate 2028 concept. Introducing organized AAM and higher volumes of authorized low‑altitude traffic will make separation and identification decisions more complex. Airports and pilots will need clearer local procedures for coexistence between legacy traffic and new UAS/AAM operations. Without careful implementation, the congestion of legitimate new traffic could mask or complicate detection of unauthorized intrusions.

Operational recommendations for 2024 (practical and immediate): 1) Airports and airlines: update contingency plans now to account for short to medium length perimeter incursions that will cascade. Drill the decision criteria for temporary suspension versus continued operations and standardize an internal cost‑impact playbook. 2) ATC and pilots: preserve and practice the simple disciplines that matter. Report sightings immediately, include UAS in the debrief, and log GPS fixes where possible. Use pattern‑of‑flight notes so investigators can cross correlate sightings quickly. 3) Airport security and law enforcement: invest in layered detection. Optical, radar and RF detection tools each have limits. Combine them, and pair detection with a rapid‑response protocol that includes evidence collection to make enforcement viable. Short of wide deployment of active mitigation tools, the ability to identify and prosecute irresponsible operators is the best deterrent. 4) Regulators and policymakers: accelerate Remote ID adoption and fund local LEAP or equivalent liaison resources that help police and prosecutors handle UAS cases. Remote ID is necessary but not sufficient. Expect an enforcement posture in 2024 that will evolve as equipage rises. 5) Industry and UAS service providers: build out UTM/LAANC integration and make operator‑facing tools clearer. When a UTM service can flag a non‑compliant flight in real time and route an operator or local authority to the precise control station, the operational picture changes rapidly. The next 12 months are a window for practical, interoperable tools to prove their worth.

Bottom line. For the cockpit and the ops room the simple realities will dominate 2024: more drones overall, a still maturing Remote ID ecosystem, and the early steps of advanced low‑altitude operations. The likely result is more reported incursions and a higher operational burden at airports unless agencies, operators and industry coordinate faster and more pragmatically. Plan for a year of operational friction and treat every sighting as a real risk to flight safety.

If you want a concise, airport‑by‑airport risk estimate for 2024 tailored to your operation, I can run a short checklist with expected traffic, nearby population density, perimeter posture, and likely UAS activity windows and return a prioritized mitigation list.