As of May 16, 2024 there is no active tropical cyclone named Shanshan in the western North Pacific. The name Shanshan has been used for storms in previous years, but any reporting that implies a Shanshan-driven cancellation on or before May 16, 2024 is incorrect. That clarification out of the way, the operational lessons around preemptive cancellations and network disruption when a western North Pacific typhoon threatens Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines or adjacent airspace remain constant and worth drilling into.
From the cockpit and from operations control the decision to cancel is never taken lightly. Safety trumps schedule every time, but sensible cancellation policy is what prevents a weather event from cascading into a network meltdown. Here are the practical points I watch for and what operators should do when a Pacific typhoon is threatening airspace.
1) Know the trigger lines: forecasts, SIGMETs, NOTAMs Pilots and dispatchers rely on objective triggers. SIGMETs and AIRMETs flag hazardous flight conditions; NOTAMs tell you about runway or airport constraints. Those products are the baseline. If the meteorological products indicate structural impacts to the aerodrome environment or en route hazards that exceed aircraft operating minima, the risk calculus shifts toward delay or cancellation. On major storms the NOTAM and SIGMET picture changes rapidly, so re-evaluate on short notice and prioritize current official products over aged forecasts.
2) Aircraft and aerodrome limitations matter more than schedules Every aircraft type and every airport has different crosswind, gust, and contamination limits. Operators must compare forecast peak winds and gusts to the demonstrated operational limits for takeoff and landing. If winds, gust spread, runway contamination, or wind shear forecasts exceed those margins, the safe choice is to cancel or hold flights on the ground until conditions moderate. That reduces the chance of in-flight contingencies and saves crew duty hours and fuel that would otherwise be wasted circling or diverting.
3) Preemptive cancellations are an operational tool, not a PR failure Canceling flights before conditions become catastrophic lets the network preserve aircraft and crew integrity. Late cancellations and mass diversions often create crew legality breaches, passenger misconnects, and bag-handling nightmares. If forecasts indicate sustained closure windows for a hub, accept the short-term disruption to avoid multi-day recovery where aircraft, crews and spares are scattered across the region.
4) Fuel, alternates, and routing must be conservative In typhoon-affected regions expect reroutes to avoid heavy convective bands and islands with closed fields. Dispatch should plan higher fuel uplift and firm alternates that are expected to remain available even as forecasts evolve. If alternates are marginal because of the storm, consider not flying until viable alternates are certain.
5) Crew duty/time‑on‑station is a limiting resource One early operational failure I have seen in my career is underestimating crew limitations during protracted weather events. If you fly into a hub and get delayed by weather, your crew may become legally unavailable to reposition the aircraft. That can strand aircraft overnight and ripple cancellations across the network. Build crew contingency into go/no‑go and cancellation decisions.
6) Ground handling and airport infrastructure are the hidden risk Even if the runway and ATC remain open, ground power, jet bridges, deicing, refueling and passenger handling can be compromised by storm conditions. If the ground side cannot support a safe turn, a cancellation is often the safer, more predictable choice than operating into a degraded station.
7) Communications and passenger care reduce secondary harms When cancellations are inevitable, timely communication and rebooking policies reduce passenger exposure. Operators should publish clear re-accommodation and refund policies, provide essential care when long delays occur, and coordinate with regulators about passenger rights. That is both good service and reduces regulatory friction after the event.
8) Network recovery is a planning exercise After the weather clears, recovery must be methodical. Prioritize high‑value flows, stagger block times to rebuild crew and aircraft positioning, and avoid attempting to run a full schedule immediately. Recovery that respects crew duty limits and realistic turnaround times prevents a second wave of cancellations.
Historical note for context Shanshan is a name on the western North Pacific naming list and has been applied to storms in past years that impacted Japan and nearby regions. Past Shanshan events illustrate how slow moving storms that affect multiple prefectures can drive hundreds of domestic cancellations and suspension of rail services. Those historical cases are useful when modeling the staff and equipment stress of a large landfalling typhoon.
Bottom line for airspace stakeholders On the Pacific rim the decision to cancel flights ahead of a typhoon is an exercise in risk management. The correct decision balances published meteorological products, aircraft and aerodrome limits, crew legality, ground support capability and passenger welfare. Operators that adopt clear preemptive criteria, maintain conservative fuel and alternate planning, and communicate proactively to customers minimize both safety risk and the long tail economic effects of weather-driven disruption.